The long debate about population growth and food supply can be summarized in a simple question: Do humans live IN or ON the Earth? Or, is it fundamentally the earth or humanity that produces food? If the Earth, key indicators suggest some limits are already approaching. If humanity, past experience is ground for optimism. The reality lies somewhere along the continuum between human ingenuity and the state and availability of natural environments, or more simply, somewhere in the middle. An emphasis on Local Agriculture, hydroponic technology, and the ability to control environments offer great promise on the horizon of food production on Earth. It is up to us to wrap our minds around these concepts, so as to utilize them for our sustenance.

Watch how our population rises http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/popclockw. Seemingly without end, it is more of a challenge every day to jive food production with population growth. We are reaching a threshold in this ability. As long as humans have been humans the output of food relative to people has been sufficient. While we are still producing sufficient levels it is becoming more and more cumbersome ensuring Food Security to all the people of the Earth even though we are more interconnected every day. Mostly, this has to do with the relative vulnerability of food to shipping. This is the impetus to technologies such as Food Irradiation and GMO's that aim to artificially further the viability of foodstuffs.

http://www.arches.uga.edu/~wparks/ppt/green/sld038.htm

Notice how the lines corresponding to population increase and food supply are converging after a divergence in the 1950's - 1990's. This is the threshold we are reaching under current food production methods.

http://www.cnie.org/pop/conserving/map.htm

Notice how nations most burdened by hunger are third world or traditionally unarable countries. This emphasizes the ability of Local Food Systems utilizing hydroponic, controlled environment technologies to deliver localized food. It's not the amount of food being produced that's the problem, it s the ability and corresponding cost-effectiveness of moving it around that's at issue.

http://www.cnie.org/pop/conserving/megachart.htm

Notice how arable land has gone down resulting from more intensive crop procedures. We can only go so far. It's kind of like the 100-meter dash. Can a human really keep running faster and faster? Eventually somebody will have to run it as fast as humanly possible based on the physiological aspects of our bodies. In other words, I think its safe to say that no human will run 100 meters in 4 seconds. Similarly, You cannot make a corn plant produce more ears, or more kernels. We cannot support the population explosion underway on Earth with the same food production methods and models being utilized today:

1 hectare = 2.47 acres; 1 cubic meter = 1,000 liters = 264 gallons; 1 metric ton = 2,205 pounds
(www.cnie.org)

The reality is that both human resources and natural resources are essential to adequate agriculture production. But the balance between the two is shifting. Every year the world's population gains nearly 90 million people, while farmland loses an estimated 25 billion metric tons of topsoil. Although food production historically has kept pace with population growth, key trends present reason for concern:

o The agricultural frontier is closing, as farming moves from a long era of land and water abundance to natural resource scarcity coupled with dependence on technology and fossil fuel-based energy. In 1960, the amount of cultivated land supporting the food needs of each of the earth's inhabitants was 0.44 hectares. By 2050 population projections suggest it will be around one fourth that amount. On top of that, the vast majority of the world's population growth is occurring in developing countries with little or no potential for expanding arable land.

o Per capita crop production peaked globally in 1985 and has generally declined since. Steady increases in livestock production kept per capita food production rising until 1992, but even this indicator has been falling regionally in Africa and the Near East in recent decades.

o Farming and other human activities may have siphoned off enough water from underground aquifers and through the denuding of once-dense forests-allowing the water's evaporation and eventual displacement to the oceans to account for one third of this century's 163-millimeter (6-inch) rise in global sea level. This water will not be renewed in our lifetimes. By 2050, according to new data compiled by Population Action International, water that is renewable-because it is supplied by rainfall-is projected to be in short supply for 4.4 billion people living in 58 countries.

o Since World War II, agriculture and related human activities have substantially reduced the plant-growing potential of land equal in area to China and India combined. An area of land the size of Hungary is so hopelessly degraded that restoration is impossible.

o Prior to development of an experimental new strain of high-yielding rice, the productivity of rice-growing research plots in southeastern Asia was actually declining. If the reason for the decline is deteriorating soil quality, as some suspect, the new strain may offer a one-time yield gain that cannot be sustained.

o Crop pests increasingly are resistant to pesticides, forcing researchers to invent, and farmers to use, more hazardous chemicals to keep ahead of pest evolution. In parts of Asia, crop yields are not responding to additional applications of fertilizer. Use of fertilizers and pesticides has already contributed to water pollution, and some agricultural chemicals may affect animal and human reproductive systems (www.cnie.org).

It is the element of human ingenuity that will wrest us from our burgeoning problem of food production in the face of population explosion. Be informed, be part of the Food Movement, use your Buying Power, and support Local Agriculture.

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